General Election 2024: Abki Baar 400 Paar

General Election 2024: Abki Baar 400 Paar

   My Guess:

I am neither a psephologist nor have I consciously taken into account the views of poll pundits (*). My guess is based entirely on the trend of overall votes polled in the last two general elections and a little bit of my understanding of the country's pulse.

BJP+ (NDA) is winning 395 seats in the 2024 General Election. (#)

Year	2014	2019	2024 Projected
	Actual	Actual	Min	Avg	Max
Total Seats	543	543	543	543	543
BJP Won/Winning	282	303
BJP+ Won/Winning	336	353	380	395	410
BJP+ Gain		17	27	42	57
BJP+ Lost/Losing	207	190	165	150	135
% Votes Polled	31%	37.4%	43.4%	45.4%	49.4%
% Votes Gained		6.40%	6%	8%	10%

 Note: Coloured cells are estimates.

   Actions of the Government that are Creating Pro-incumbency Wave:

Some of the important actions taken by the government, which instil Hope, Confidence and Pride in the countrymen and Faith in the government, are -

1)   Succesful removal of Article 370 w/o any major protest anywhere and subsequent improvement in the security and economic situation of Kashmir.

2)      Successful implementation of GST, leading to good economic growth.

3)      Reasonably good and sincere handling of the Covid crisis.

4)      Succesful handling of Chinese incursion in Doklam and Galwan.

5)     Succesful resolution of the Shri Ram Mandir dispute and construction of a Grand Ram temple in Ayodhya, the birthplace of Lord Shri Ram.

6)  10 years of Corruption-free Govt: On one hand, Modi provided a corruption-free government at the centre, while on the other hand, there have been many cases of corruption against leaders of opposition parties followed by recovery of cash and their imprisonment.

7)       Significant improvement in Infrastructure speeding up the Economic Growth.

8)       Pro-poor and pro-farmers' schemes.

9)       Succesful handling of Farmers’ agitations, I and II.

10)     The economy is doing extremely well as a result of many of the above actions.

11)    Many opposition leaders are joining the BJP, giving an indication of the direction in which the undercurrent is flowing.

   Actions of Opposition Governments Indirectly Helping in the creation of the Modi wave:

1)      Opposition governments are unable to give corruption-free and growth-oriented rules.

2)      Opposition governments promoting dynastic rule.

3)    Opposition parties are blindly opposing the actions of the Modi government for the sake of opposition. They are directionless and unable to provide a road map. They are unable to instil confidence in countrymen.

4)   Opposition leaders are using abusive and foul language, which does not go well with the Indian psyche.

   Divine Forces helping Modi:

I have my own reasons to believe in this outcome. There is a Divine plan; it is to raise India for the benefit of humanity. Modi's government is working in that direction; therefore, the divine forces are aligned with him and helping him.

   Agenda for the Next Government:

As hinted by Shri Narendra Modi, the next few years will be the years of major changes in Indian polity. His call for 400 seats in the Loksabha election makes me believe that the following changes are in the offing.

1)  Rewriting or modifications in the constitution, enabling a Presidential form of government where the President/Prime Minister of the country will be elected directly by the electorate.

2)       Reclamation of POK.

3)   Implementation of the National Register of Citizens (NRC), the National Population Register (NPR), and the Uniform Civil Code (UCC)

4)      Redefining the Minority.

5)   New tax system: Doing away with income tax and replacing it with transaction tax/ expenditure tax, etc.

6)      Reforms in the Judiciary and the Police System.

Something More (As of 10/05/2024): 

        My Current Estimate BJP+  (min. 370, max. 400)

    Agenda for the Next Government:

I would like to add one more item to this list. It was there in my mind but slipped out at the time of writing the blog.

1)         One Nation, one Election.

    Reviewing Earlier Elections and Election 2024:

General Election 2014: In 2014, people voted against the existing government. It was neither a pro-Modi nor pro-BJP vote; it was an anti-incumbency vote.

The main reason for the anti-incumbency vote was all-around corruption. People had lost confidence in the then government. They voted against the existing government, and the BJP came to power because it was the strongest alternative at that moment.

General Election 2019: In 2019, people were, in general, happy with Modi. His image of a sincere, honest, hard-working, and nationalist leader worked in his favour.

On the one hand, Modi’s actions like Notebandi, GST, Surgical Strike, and Balakot strengthened his image of a sincere, honest, hard-working, and nationalist leader; on the other hand, the opposition was still mired in corruption, dynasty rule, partisan and anti-national agenda. The opposition had no vision for the Nation, and they were totally relying on the anti-Modi narrative.

People ignored the opposition and, once again, reposed faith in Modi.  

General Election 2024: The scene hasn’t changed since 2019. On the contrary, the contrast has become more prominent. Modi’s image of a sincere, honest, hard-working, and nationalist leader has strengthened, while the opposition is still mired in corruption, dynasty rule, partisan and anti-national agenda. Still, the opposition has no vision, and they are totally banking on the anti-Modi narrative.

Abrogation of Article 370, handling of the Covid crisis, and Pran-Prathisthaa of Ram Lala have only further strengthened the image of Narendra Modi.

Faith in Modi is at an all-time high. Once again, people are going to dump the opposition. It shall not be a surprise if it is 400 Paar this time. 

Masses are driven by cultism, and Indians are more so. This time, cult figures before the people are - Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal, Mamta Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav, etc. But Narendra  Modi is far bigger than the rest of them.  The opposition's only chance to halt Narendra Modi's momentum was to unite, but unfortunately, their egos did not let them unite. Therefore, it shall not be a surprise if it is 400 Paar this time. 

Notes: These are my personal views and projections. Don’t take them as scientific and reliable predictions.

(*)  I may be affected unconsciously by various estimates doing rounds.

(#) This is not a recent estimate. On January 29 2024, I had predicted  375-410 for BJP+ in one of the WA groups.