General Election 2024: Abki Baar 400 Paar
My Guess:
I am neither a psephologist nor have I consciously taken into account the views
of poll pundits (*). My guess is based entirely on the trend of overall votes polled
in the last two general elections and a little bit of my understanding of the country's
pulse.
BJP+ (NDA) is winning 395
seats in the 2024 General Election. (#)
|
Year
|
2014
|
2019
|
2024
Projected
|
|
|
Actual
|
Actual
|
Min
|
Avg
|
Max
|
|
Total Seats
|
543
|
543
|
543
|
543
|
543
|
|
BJP Won/Winning
|
282
|
303
|
|
|
|
|
BJP+ Won/Winning
|
336
|
353
|
380
|
395
|
410
|
|
BJP+ Gain
|
|
17
|
27
|
42
|
57
|
|
BJP+ Lost/Losing
|
207
|
190
|
165
|
150
|
135
|
|
% Votes Polled
|
31%
|
37.4%
|
43.4%
|
45.4%
|
49.4%
|
|
% Votes Gained
|
|
6.40%
|
6%
|
8%
|
10%
|
Note:
Coloured cells are estimates.
Actions of the Government that are Creating Pro-incumbency Wave:
Some of the important actions taken by the government, which instil Hope,
Confidence and Pride in the countrymen and Faith in the
government, are -
1) Succesful removal of Article 370 w/o any major
protest anywhere and subsequent improvement in the security and economic
situation of Kashmir.
2) Successful implementation of GST, leading to
good economic growth.
3) Reasonably good and sincere handling of the Covid
crisis.
4) Succesful handling of Chinese incursion in
Doklam and Galwan.
5) Succesful resolution of the Shri Ram Mandir
dispute and construction of a Grand Ram temple in Ayodhya, the birthplace of
Lord Shri Ram.
6) 10 years of Corruption-free Govt: On one hand,
Modi provided a corruption-free government at the centre, while on the other
hand, there have been many cases of corruption against leaders of opposition parties
followed by recovery of cash and their imprisonment.
7) Significant improvement in Infrastructure
speeding up the Economic Growth.
8) Pro-poor and pro-farmers' schemes.
9) Succesful handling of Farmers’ agitations, I and
II.
10)
The economy is doing extremely well as a result
of many of the above actions.
11) Many opposition leaders are joining the BJP,
giving an indication of the direction in which the undercurrent is flowing.
Actions of Opposition Governments Indirectly Helping in the creation of the
Modi wave:
1)
Opposition governments are unable to give
corruption-free and growth-oriented rules.
2)
Opposition governments promoting dynastic rule.
3) Opposition parties are blindly opposing the
actions of the Modi government for the sake of opposition. They are
directionless and unable to provide a road map. They are unable to instil
confidence in countrymen.
4) Opposition leaders are using abusive and foul
language, which does not go well with the Indian psyche.
Divine Forces helping Modi:
I have my own reasons to believe in this outcome. There is a Divine plan;
it is to raise India for the benefit of humanity. Modi's government is working in
that direction; therefore, the divine forces are aligned with him and helping
him.
Agenda for the Next Government:
As hinted by Shri Narendra Modi, the next few years will be the years of
major changes in Indian polity. His call for 400 seats in the Loksabha election
makes me believe that the following changes are in the offing.
1) Rewriting or modifications in the constitution,
enabling a Presidential form of government where the President/Prime Minister
of the country will be elected directly by the electorate.
2) Reclamation of POK.
3) Implementation of the National Register of
Citizens (NRC), the National Population Register (NPR), and the Uniform Civil
Code (UCC)
4) Redefining the Minority.
5) New tax system: Doing away with income tax and
replacing it with transaction tax/ expenditure tax, etc.
6) Reforms in the Judiciary and the Police System.
Something More (As of 10/05/2024):
My Current Estimate BJP+ (min. 370, max. 400)
Agenda for the Next Government:
I would like to add one more item to this list. It was there in my mind
but slipped out at the time of writing the blog.
1)
One Nation, one Election.
Reviewing Earlier Elections and Election 2024:
General Election 2014: In 2014, people voted against the existing government. It was neither a pro-Modi nor pro-BJP vote; it was an anti-incumbency vote.
The main reason for the anti-incumbency vote was all-around corruption. People
had lost confidence in the then government. They voted against the existing government,
and the BJP came to power because it was the strongest alternative at that
moment.
General Election 2019: In 2019,
people were, in general, happy with Modi. His image of a sincere, honest, hard-working,
and nationalist leader worked in his favour.
On the one hand, Modi’s actions like Notebandi, GST, Surgical Strike, and
Balakot strengthened his image of a sincere, honest, hard-working,
and nationalist leader; on the other hand, the opposition was still mired in
corruption, dynasty rule, partisan and anti-national agenda. The opposition
had no vision for the Nation, and they were totally relying on the anti-Modi
narrative.
People ignored the opposition and, once again, reposed faith in Modi.
General Election 2024: The scene
hasn’t changed since 2019. On the contrary, the contrast has become more prominent.
Modi’s image of a sincere, honest, hard-working, and nationalist leader has strengthened,
while the opposition is still mired in corruption, dynasty rule, partisan and
anti-national agenda. Still, the opposition has no vision, and they are totally
banking on the anti-Modi narrative.
Abrogation of Article 370, handling of the Covid crisis, and Pran-Prathisthaa
of Ram Lala have only further strengthened the image of Narendra Modi.
Faith in Modi is at an all-time high. Once again, people are going to dump
the opposition. It shall not be a surprise if it is 400 Paar this time.
Masses are driven by cultism, and Indians are more so. This time, cult figures before the people are - Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal, Mamta Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav, etc. But Narendra Modi is far bigger than the rest of them. The opposition's only chance to halt Narendra Modi's momentum was to unite, but unfortunately, their egos did not let them unite. Therefore, it shall not be a surprise if it is 400 Paar this time.
Notes: These are my personal views and projections. Don’t take them as
scientific and reliable predictions.
(*) I may be affected unconsciously by various estimates doing rounds.
(#) This is not a recent estimate. On January 29 2024, I had predicted 375-410 for BJP+ in one of the WA groups.
